Table 2 Disease progression from ASCUS to HSIL by HPV types
N | Progression | Probability of progression within 36 months (95% CI)a | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | P valuec | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unadjusted | Adjustedb | |||||
ASCUS to HSIL | 441 | 60 | 17.6 (13.3–21.7) | |||
Age | ||||||
20–29 | 76 | 7 | 13.9 (3.4–23.4) | Ref | Ref | |
30–39 | 142 | 21 | 18.4 (10.8–25.5) | 1.64 (0.70–3.87) | 1.51 (0.64–3.56) | 0.351 |
40–49 | 128 | 20 | 19.7 (11.4–27.3) | 1.65 (0.70–3.91) | 1.67 (0.70–4.00) | 0.245 |
50–59 | 95 | 12 | 15.9 (6.7–24.1) | 1.32 (0.52–3.36) | 1.21 (0.47–3.10) | 0.699 |
HPV type at baseline | ||||||
Low-risk | 155 | 10 | 8.6 (3.1–13.8) | Ref | Ref | |
HPV-16 | 93 | 15 | 19.7 (9.9–28.4) | 2.67 (1.12–5.94) | 2.64 (1.18–5.90) | 0.018 |
HPV-18 | 44 | 3 | 10.6 (0.0–21.5) | 1.15 (0.32–4.17) | 1.08 (0.29–3.97) | 0.913 |
HPV-31 | 24 | 6 | 30.9 (5.8–49.3) | 4.01 (1.46–11.04) | 3.96 (1.43–10.94) | 0.008 |
HPV-33 | 18 | 3 | 20.6 (0.0–39.0) | 2.42 (0.67–8.81) | 2.34 (0.64–8.54) | 0.198 |
HPV-45 | 13 | 2 | 20.5 (0.0–42.3) | 2.24 (0.49–10.21) | 2.16 (0.47–9.90) | 0.320 |
HPV-52 | 87 | 12 | 19.6 (8.2–29.5) | 2.37 (1.02–5.48) | 2.32 (1.00–5.42) | 0.051 |
HPV-58 | 89 | 21 | 28.5 (16.9–38.4) | 3.64 (1.71–7.73) | 3.54 (1.66–7.55) | 0.001 |
Type-specific persistent infection | 200 | 28 | 30.7 (14.6–43.7) | |||
Low-risk | 88 | 4 | 6.6 (0.0–12.9) | Ref | Ref | |
HPV-16 | 27 | 6 | 29.2 (5.2–47.1) | 4.86 (1.37–17.23) | 5.04 (1.40–18.11) | 0.013 |
HPV-18 | 10 | 2 | 28.9 (0.0–56.7) | 4.13 (0.76–22.65) | 4.59 (0.82–25.70) | 0.083 |
HPV-31 | 8 | 2 | 31.4 (0.0–59.7) | 4.12 (0.75–22.56) | 3.86 (0.70–21.39) | 0.122 |
HPV-33 | 6 | 1 | 33.3 (0.0–70.0) | 2.58 (0.29–23.46) | 3.01 (0.33–27.56) | 0.331 |
HPV-45 | 4 | 1 | NA | 3.01 (0.34–27.02) | 2.80 (0.31–25.27) | 0.359 |
HPV-52 | 34 | 4 | 13.8 (0.0–27.6) | 2.43 (0.61–9.74) | 2.57 (0.64–10.39) | 0.185 |
HPV-58 | 33 | 10 | 61.7 (6.1–84.4) | 5.46 (1.71–17.42) | 5.84 (1.83–18.67) | 0.003 |