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Table 3 Cumulative number and percent of chronic HBV infection, cured, and HBV-related death till 2030 and 2050

From: Disease burden of chronic hepatitis B and complications in China from 2006 to 2050: an individual-based modeling study

Year Natural Base-case WHO Ideal 1 Ideal 2
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
Total CHB 73.74 43.18 73.53 43.59 68.07 27.49 67.50 27.03 67.51 27.08
Δ CHB 40.14 87.74 40.34 87.32 39.48 81.65 40.06 82.11 40.05 82.07
HBsAg loss 18.79 27.59 23.26 35.33 22.69 32.67 23.42 33.42 23.45 33.58
Percent 46.81% 31.45% 57.65% 40.46% 57.47% 40.01% 58.46% 40.70% 58.55% 40.92%
HBV-RD 13.24 27.19 9.02 16.89 8.77 15.13 8.57 14.77 8.53 14.46
Percent 32.99% 31.00% 22.37% 19.35% 22.21% 18.53% 21.39% 17.99% 21.29% 17.62%
BD 8.11 32.96 8.06 35.10 8.02 33.85 8.07 33.92 8.07 34.03
Percent 20.20% 37.57% 19.98% 40.20% 20.31% 41.46% 20.14% 41.31% 20.15% 41.46%
  1. Δ CHB = basline + new infecion − ASR − HBVrelated death − cured
  2. Reflecting the reduced number of chronic HBV infection
  3. CHB Chronic HBV infection, HBV-RD HBV-related death, BD Background death