Year
|
Natural
|
Base-case
|
WHO
|
Ideal 1
|
Ideal 2
|
---|
2030
|
2050
|
2030
|
2050
|
2030
|
2050
|
2030
|
2050
|
2030
|
2050
|
---|
Total CHB
|
73.74
|
43.18
|
73.53
|
43.59
|
68.07
|
27.49
|
67.50
|
27.03
|
67.51
|
27.08
|
Δ CHB
|
40.14
|
87.74
|
40.34
|
87.32
|
39.48
|
81.65
|
40.06
|
82.11
|
40.05
|
82.07
|
HBsAg loss
|
18.79
|
27.59
|
23.26
|
35.33
|
22.69
|
32.67
|
23.42
|
33.42
|
23.45
|
33.58
|
Percent
|
46.81%
|
31.45%
|
57.65%
|
40.46%
|
57.47%
|
40.01%
|
58.46%
|
40.70%
|
58.55%
|
40.92%
|
HBV-RD
|
13.24
|
27.19
|
9.02
|
16.89
|
8.77
|
15.13
|
8.57
|
14.77
|
8.53
|
14.46
|
Percent
|
32.99%
|
31.00%
|
22.37%
|
19.35%
|
22.21%
|
18.53%
|
21.39%
|
17.99%
|
21.29%
|
17.62%
|
BD
|
8.11
|
32.96
|
8.06
|
35.10
|
8.02
|
33.85
|
8.07
|
33.92
|
8.07
|
34.03
|
Percent
|
20.20%
|
37.57%
|
19.98%
|
40.20%
|
20.31%
|
41.46%
|
20.14%
|
41.31%
|
20.15%
|
41.46%
|
- Δ CHB = basline + new infecion − ASR − HBVrelated death − cured
- Reflecting the reduced number of chronic HBV infection
- CHB Chronic HBV infection, HBV-RD HBV-related death, BD Background death