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Table 3 Cumulative number and percent of chronic HBV infection, cured, and HBV-related death till 2030 and 2050

From: Disease burden of chronic hepatitis B and complications in China from 2006 to 2050: an individual-based modeling study

Year

Natural

Base-case

WHO

Ideal 1

Ideal 2

2030

2050

2030

2050

2030

2050

2030

2050

2030

2050

Total CHB

73.74

43.18

73.53

43.59

68.07

27.49

67.50

27.03

67.51

27.08

Δ CHB

40.14

87.74

40.34

87.32

39.48

81.65

40.06

82.11

40.05

82.07

HBsAg loss

18.79

27.59

23.26

35.33

22.69

32.67

23.42

33.42

23.45

33.58

Percent

46.81%

31.45%

57.65%

40.46%

57.47%

40.01%

58.46%

40.70%

58.55%

40.92%

HBV-RD

13.24

27.19

9.02

16.89

8.77

15.13

8.57

14.77

8.53

14.46

Percent

32.99%

31.00%

22.37%

19.35%

22.21%

18.53%

21.39%

17.99%

21.29%

17.62%

BD

8.11

32.96

8.06

35.10

8.02

33.85

8.07

33.92

8.07

34.03

Percent

20.20%

37.57%

19.98%

40.20%

20.31%

41.46%

20.14%

41.31%

20.15%

41.46%

  1. Δ CHB = basline + new infecion − ASR − HBVrelated death − cured
  2. Reflecting the reduced number of chronic HBV infection
  3. CHB Chronic HBV infection, HBV-RD HBV-related death, BD Background death