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Table 2 Parameters of simulated scenarios

From: Disease burden of chronic hepatitis B and complications in China from 2006 to 2050: an individual-based modeling study

Scenarios Assumption 2006–2017 2018–2020 2021–2030 2031–2050
Natural Incidence Historical data 851,659(2017 incidence) 851,659(2017 incidence) 85,159(2017 incidence)
Dx% No diagnosis No diagnosis No diagnosis No diagnosis
Tx% No treatment No treatment No treatment No treatment
Base-case Incidence Historical data 851,659(2017 incidence) 851,659(2017 incidence) 851,659(2017 incidence)
Dx% 18.70% 18.70% 18.70% 18.70%
Tx% 10.83% 10.83% 10.83% 10.83%
WHO target Incidence Historical data 555,858 in 2020 (70% of 2015)* 79,408 in 2030 (10% of 2015)* 79,408(2030 incidence)
Dx% 18.70% 30% in 2020* 90% in 2030* 90%(2030 rate)
Tx% 10.83% 10.83% 80% in 2030* 80%(2030 rate)
Ideal 1
(Dx% = 1; Tx% = 1)
Incidence Historical data 555,858 in 2020 (70% of 2015)* 79,408 in 2030 (10% of 2015)* 79,408(2030 incidence)
Dx% 18.70% 100% 100% 100%
Tx% 10.83% 100% 100% 100%
Ideal 2 Incidence Historical data 555,858 in 2020 (70% of 2015)* 79,408 in 2030 (10% of 2015)* 79,408(2030 incidence)
(Eligible% = 1) Dx% 18.70% 30% in 2020* 90% in 2030* 90%(2030 rate)
Tx% 10.83% 10.83% 80% in 2030* 80%(2030 rate)
  1. Dx%: diagnosis rate
  2. Tx%: treatment rate (treatment/treatment eligible)
  3. Eligible%: treatment eligible proportion (patients indicated for treatment/all hepatitis and cirrhosis patients)
  4. *Dx% and Tx% in 2018–2019 and 2021–2029 were estimated through linear regression (Supplementary Table 6)