Table 2 Parameters of simulated scenarios
Scenarios | Assumption | 2006–2017 | 2018–2020 | 2021–2030 | 2031–2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Natural | Incidence | Historical data | 851,659(2017 incidence) | 851,659(2017 incidence) | 85,159(2017 incidence) |
Dx% | No diagnosis | No diagnosis | No diagnosis | No diagnosis | |
Tx% | No treatment | No treatment | No treatment | No treatment | |
Base-case | Incidence | Historical data | 851,659(2017 incidence) | 851,659(2017 incidence) | 851,659(2017 incidence) |
Dx% | 18.70% | 18.70% | 18.70% | 18.70% | |
Tx% | 10.83% | 10.83% | 10.83% | 10.83% | |
WHO target | Incidence | Historical data | 555,858 in 2020 (70% of 2015)* | 79,408 in 2030 (10% of 2015)* | 79,408(2030 incidence) |
Dx% | 18.70% | 30% in 2020* | 90% in 2030* | 90%(2030 rate) | |
Tx% | 10.83% | 10.83% | 80% in 2030* | 80%(2030 rate) | |
Ideal 1 (Dx% = 1; Tx% = 1) | Incidence | Historical data | 555,858 in 2020 (70% of 2015)* | 79,408 in 2030 (10% of 2015)* | 79,408(2030 incidence) |
Dx% | 18.70% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Tx% | 10.83% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Ideal 2 | Incidence | Historical data | 555,858 in 2020 (70% of 2015)* | 79,408 in 2030 (10% of 2015)* | 79,408(2030 incidence) |
(Eligible% = 1) | Dx% | 18.70% | 30% in 2020* | 90% in 2030* | 90%(2030 rate) |
Tx% | 10.83% | 10.83% | 80% in 2030* | 80%(2030 rate) |