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Table 2 Predictive capacity of the factors and integrated models for the risk of hospital mortality in severe patients with COVID-19

From: Scores based on neutrophil percentage and lactate dehydrogenase with or without oxygen saturation predict hospital mortality risk in severe COVID-19 patients

Variable AUC 95%CI SE Sensitivity (%) Specificity (%)
Training data from China cohort      
 LDH (U/L) 0.880 0.813–0.948 0.034 97 71
 NE (%) 0.879 0.812–0.946 0.034 84 82
 SaO2 (%) 0.849 0.758–0.940 0.046 87 78
 LY (%) 0.852 0.776–0.929 0.039 77 80
 NLR 0.858 0.783–0.933 0.038 81 82
 CKMB (U/L) 0.829 0.746–0.912 0.042 87 69
 D-dimer (μg/mL) 0.763 0.641–0.885 0.062 73 88
 CRP (μg/mL) 0.807 0.723–0.892 0.043 100 51
Integrated models      
All variables with information gain > 0.2      
 LDH + NE + SaO2 + LY + NLR + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP 0.945 0.897–0.992 0.024 97 83
NE was selected for modeling      
 LDH + NE + SaO2 + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP 0.945 0.900–0.989 0.023 93 84
 LDH + NE + SaO2 + CKMB + D-dimer 0.942 0.898–0.987 0.023 97 78
 LDH + NE + SaO2 + CKMB 0.937 0.887–0.988 0.026 83 94
 LDH + NE + SaO2 (NSL risk score) 0.932 0.884–0.981 0.025 97 78
 LDH + NE (NL risk score) 0.903 0.843–0.963 0.031 94 82
LY was selected for modeling      
 LDH + SaO2 + LY + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP 0.948 0.904–0.992 0.022 97 84
 LDH + SaO2 + LY + CKMB + D-dimer 0.944 0.901–0.987 0.022 86 88
 LDH + SaO2 + LY + CKMB 0.932 0.880–0.984 0.026 97 77
 LDH + SaO2 + LY 0.934 0.886–0.982 0.025 90 88
 LDH + LY 0.903 0.843–0.964 0.031 90 82
NLR was selected for modeling      
 LDH + SaO2 + NLR + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP 0.930 0.866–0.995 0.033 83 95
 LDH + SaO2 + NLR + CKMB + D-dimer 0.945 0.901–0.989 0.022 79 95
 LDH + SaO2 + NLR + CKMB 0.933 0.882–0.983 0.026 77 97
 LDH + SaO2 + NLR 0.933 0.883–0.971 0.025 87 88
 LDH + NLR 0.919 0.866–0.971 0.027 90 82
LDH wasn’t selected for modeling      
 NE + SaO2 0.919 0.865–0.972 0.027 97 78
Test data from Iran cohort      
 LDH (U/L) 0.746 (0.574–0.919) 0.0881 77 70
 NE (%) 0.851 0.719–0.984 0.068 85 82
 SaO2 (%) 0.869 0.702–1.000 0.085 85 97
Combined models      
 LDH + NE + SaO2 (NSL risk score) 0.910 0.758–1.000 0.077 92 96
 LDH + NE (NL risk score) 0.871 0.734–1.000 0.071 92 82
  1. LDH lactate dehydrogenase, NE neutrophil percentage, SaO2 oxygen saturation, LY lymphocyte percentage, NLR neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio, CKMB creatine kinase myocardial bound, CRP C-reactive protein, AUC area under the curve