Scores based on neutrophil percentage and lactate dehydrogenase with or without oxygen saturation predict hospital mortality risk in severe COVID-19 patients

Fan, Xiude; Zhu, Bin; Nouri-Vaskeh, Masoud; Jiang, Chunguo; Feng, Xiaokai; Poulsen, Kyle; Baradaran, Behzad; Fang, Jiansong; Ade, Erfan Ahmadi; Sharifi, Akbar; Zhao, Zhigang; Han, Qunying; Zhang, Yong; Zhang, Liming; Liu, Zhengwen

doi:10.1186/s12985-021-01538-8

Virology Journal

Table 2 Predictive capacity of the factors and integrated models for the risk of hospital mortality in severe patients with COVID-19

From: Scores based on neutrophil percentage and lactate dehydrogenase with or without oxygen saturation predict hospital mortality risk in severe COVID-19 patients

Variable	AUC	95%CI	SE	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)
Training data from China cohort
LDH (U/L)	0.880	0.813–0.948	0.034	97	71
NE (%)	0.879	0.812–0.946	0.034	84	82
SaO₂ (%)	0.849	0.758–0.940	0.046	87	78
LY (%)	0.852	0.776–0.929	0.039	77	80
NLR	0.858	0.783–0.933	0.038	81	82
CKMB (U/L)	0.829	0.746–0.912	0.042	87	69
D-dimer (μg/mL)	0.763	0.641–0.885	0.062	73	88
CRP (μg/mL)	0.807	0.723–0.892	0.043	100	51
Integrated models
All variables with information gain > 0.2
LDH + NE + SaO₂ + LY + NLR + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP	0.945	0.897–0.992	0.024	97	83
NE was selected for modeling
LDH + NE + SaO₂ + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP	0.945	0.900–0.989	0.023	93	84
LDH + NE + SaO₂ + CKMB + D-dimer	0.942	0.898–0.987	0.023	97	78
LDH + NE + SaO₂ + CKMB	0.937	0.887–0.988	0.026	83	94
LDH + NE + SaO₂ (NSL risk score)	0.932	0.884–0.981	0.025	97	78
LDH + NE (NL risk score)	0.903	0.843–0.963	0.031	94	82
LY was selected for modeling
LDH + SaO₂ + LY + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP	0.948	0.904–0.992	0.022	97	84
LDH + SaO₂ + LY + CKMB + D-dimer	0.944	0.901–0.987	0.022	86	88
LDH + SaO₂ + LY + CKMB	0.932	0.880–0.984	0.026	97	77
LDH + SaO₂ + LY	0.934	0.886–0.982	0.025	90	88
LDH + LY	0.903	0.843–0.964	0.031	90	82
NLR was selected for modeling
LDH + SaO₂ + NLR + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP	0.930	0.866–0.995	0.033	83	95
LDH + SaO₂ + NLR + CKMB + D-dimer	0.945	0.901–0.989	0.022	79	95
LDH + SaO₂ + NLR + CKMB	0.933	0.882–0.983	0.026	77	97
LDH + SaO₂ + NLR	0.933	0.883–0.971	0.025	87	88
LDH + NLR	0.919	0.866–0.971	0.027	90	82
LDH wasn’t selected for modeling
NE + SaO₂	0.919	0.865–0.972	0.027	97	78
Test data from Iran cohort
LDH (U/L)	0.746	(0.574–0.919)	0.0881	77	70
NE (%)	0.851	0.719–0.984	0.068	85	82
SaO₂ (%)	0.869	0.702–1.000	0.085	85	97
Combined models
LDH + NE + SaO₂ (NSL risk score)	0.910	0.758–1.000	0.077	92	96
LDH + NE (NL risk score)	0.871	0.734–1.000	0.071	92	82

LDH lactate dehydrogenase, NE neutrophil percentage, SaO₂ oxygen saturation, LY lymphocyte percentage, NLR neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio, CKMB creatine kinase myocardial bound, CRP C-reactive protein, AUC area under the curve

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ISSN: 1743-422X

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