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Table 2 Predictive capacity of the factors and integrated models for the risk of hospital mortality in severe patients with COVID-19

From: Scores based on neutrophil percentage and lactate dehydrogenase with or without oxygen saturation predict hospital mortality risk in severe COVID-19 patients

Variable

AUC

95%CI

SE

Sensitivity (%)

Specificity (%)

Training data from China cohort

     

 LDH (U/L)

0.880

0.813–0.948

0.034

97

71

 NE (%)

0.879

0.812–0.946

0.034

84

82

 SaO2 (%)

0.849

0.758–0.940

0.046

87

78

 LY (%)

0.852

0.776–0.929

0.039

77

80

 NLR

0.858

0.783–0.933

0.038

81

82

 CKMB (U/L)

0.829

0.746–0.912

0.042

87

69

 D-dimer (μg/mL)

0.763

0.641–0.885

0.062

73

88

 CRP (μg/mL)

0.807

0.723–0.892

0.043

100

51

Integrated models

     

All variables with information gain > 0.2

     

 LDH + NE + SaO2 + LY + NLR + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP

0.945

0.897–0.992

0.024

97

83

NE was selected for modeling

     

 LDH + NE + SaO2 + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP

0.945

0.900–0.989

0.023

93

84

 LDH + NE + SaO2 + CKMB + D-dimer

0.942

0.898–0.987

0.023

97

78

 LDH + NE + SaO2 + CKMB

0.937

0.887–0.988

0.026

83

94

 LDH + NE + SaO2 (NSL risk score)

0.932

0.884–0.981

0.025

97

78

 LDH + NE (NL risk score)

0.903

0.843–0.963

0.031

94

82

LY was selected for modeling

     

 LDH + SaO2 + LY + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP

0.948

0.904–0.992

0.022

97

84

 LDH + SaO2 + LY + CKMB + D-dimer

0.944

0.901–0.987

0.022

86

88

 LDH + SaO2 + LY + CKMB

0.932

0.880–0.984

0.026

97

77

 LDH + SaO2 + LY

0.934

0.886–0.982

0.025

90

88

 LDH + LY

0.903

0.843–0.964

0.031

90

82

NLR was selected for modeling

     

 LDH + SaO2 + NLR + CKMB + D-dimer + CRP

0.930

0.866–0.995

0.033

83

95

 LDH + SaO2 + NLR + CKMB + D-dimer

0.945

0.901–0.989

0.022

79

95

 LDH + SaO2 + NLR + CKMB

0.933

0.882–0.983

0.026

77

97

 LDH + SaO2 + NLR

0.933

0.883–0.971

0.025

87

88

 LDH + NLR

0.919

0.866–0.971

0.027

90

82

LDH wasn’t selected for modeling

     

 NE + SaO2

0.919

0.865–0.972

0.027

97

78

Test data from Iran cohort

     

 LDH (U/L)

0.746

(0.574–0.919)

0.0881

77

70

 NE (%)

0.851

0.719–0.984

0.068

85

82

 SaO2 (%)

0.869

0.702–1.000

0.085

85

97

Combined models

     

 LDH + NE + SaO2 (NSL risk score)

0.910

0.758–1.000

0.077

92

96

 LDH + NE (NL risk score)

0.871

0.734–1.000

0.071

92

82

  1. LDH lactate dehydrogenase, NE neutrophil percentage, SaO2 oxygen saturation, LY lymphocyte percentage, NLR neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio, CKMB creatine kinase myocardial bound, CRP C-reactive protein, AUC area under the curve