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Table 1 Clinical characteristics of simulated scenarios

From: Disease burden of chronic hepatitis B and complications in China from 2006 to 2050: an individual-based modeling study

Scenarios Aspects Clinical intervention
Natural history Incidence Current effort to lower annual new infection
Diagnosis No diagnosis
Treatment No treatment
Base case Incidence Current effort to lower annual new infection
Diagnosis Current diagnosis rate
Treatment Current treatment rate
WHO target Incidence Extra effort to lower annual new infection (e.g. higher coverage of neonatal vaccination, catch-up vaccination for adults, health counseling)
Diagnosis Increase diagnosis rate gradually to 90% in 2030
Treatment Increase treatment rate gradually to 80% in 2030
Ideal 1 Incidence Extra effort to lower annual new infection (e.g. higher coverage of neonatal vaccination, catch-up vaccination for adults, health counseling)
(full diagnosis and treatment) Diagnosis Increase diagnosis rate rapidly to 100% in 2020
Treatment Increase treatment rate rapidly to 100% in 2020
Ideal 2 Incidence Extra effort to lower annual new infection (e.g. higher coverage of neonatal vaccination, catch-up vaccination for adults, health counseling)
(full treatment eligibility) Diagnosis Increase diagnosis rate gradually to 90% in 2030
Treatment Increase treatment rate gradually to 80% in 2030
Treatment eligibility Expand treatment eligibility rapidly to 100% in 2020
  1. Natural history: we simulated there was only current effort to lower annual new infection (current level of vaccination etc.), no diagnosis or treatment. Base-case: we simulated current effort to lower annual new infection, current diagnosis and treatment rate. WHO target: we simulated extra effort to lower annual new infection (e.g. higher coverage of vaccination), gradually increased diagnosis and treatment rate. Ideal 1: we simulated extra effort to lower annual new infection, rapidly increased diagnosis and treatment rate. Ideal 2: we simulated extra effort to lower annual new infection, gradually increased diagnosis and treatment rate, expanded treatment eligibility