Table 1 Clinical characteristics of simulated scenarios
Scenarios | Aspects | Clinical intervention |
|---|---|---|
Natural history | Incidence | Current effort to lower annual new infection |
Diagnosis | No diagnosis | |
Treatment | No treatment | |
Base case | Incidence | Current effort to lower annual new infection |
Diagnosis | Current diagnosis rate | |
Treatment | Current treatment rate | |
WHO target | Incidence | Extra effort to lower annual new infection (e.g. higher coverage of neonatal vaccination, catch-up vaccination for adults, health counseling) |
Diagnosis | Increase diagnosis rate gradually to 90% in 2030 | |
Treatment | Increase treatment rate gradually to 80% in 2030 | |
Ideal 1 | Incidence | Extra effort to lower annual new infection (e.g. higher coverage of neonatal vaccination, catch-up vaccination for adults, health counseling) |
(full diagnosis and treatment) | Diagnosis | Increase diagnosis rate rapidly to 100% in 2020 |
Treatment | Increase treatment rate rapidly to 100% in 2020 | |
Ideal 2 | Incidence | Extra effort to lower annual new infection (e.g. higher coverage of neonatal vaccination, catch-up vaccination for adults, health counseling) |
(full treatment eligibility) | Diagnosis | Increase diagnosis rate gradually to 90% in 2030 |
Treatment | Increase treatment rate gradually to 80% in 2030 | |
Treatment eligibility | Expand treatment eligibility rapidly to 100% in 2020 |